Mystery Hunter

Chapter 15: The 10% Probability

Chapter 15: The 10% Probability

Translator: Ca5 Editor: MadHatter

Wait.

A crisp voice came out, and the person who spoke was Jiang He.

When Jiang He saw that everyone was staring at him, he remarked, I was 50% convinced that Li Weiyi was the murderer before hearing what Li Weiyi said, but after hearing what Li Weiyi said, there was only a 10% likelihood that Li Weiyi was the murderer. Wang Chao looked perplexed.

He pondered for a moment before responding to Jiang He: According to all aspects of the analysis, Li Weiyis statements are consistent in terms of timing and motivation. The specific details of the killing method as well as some of the specific details are also consistent with what you and I observed at the scene previously.

Xu Yiman added: Yes, werent you the one who previously stated that Li Weiyi was the murderer; why are you claiming that he isnt the murderer now? I truly dont comprehend you.

The likelihood is based on all of the information, Jiang He retorted. If there are no further variables, the likelihood is likely 100%; though, if there are any, it is likely to decrease to zero rapidly.

Are you not done yet? Xu Yiman said helplessly.

Then let me make a few claims that I believe that information and inferences cannot support, Jiang He spoke quickly. First, I am 80% positive that Wu Guifeng committed suicide based on the evidence left at the site. However, Li Weiyis assertions that he killed Wu Guifeng go against what I assumed. That being said

Jiang He turned to the detective who had previously been beaten by him: When I found the knife in Wu Guifengs body, I attempted an experiment with this detective. In line with the results of the experiment, if Wu Guifeng was murdered, the murderer should be holding the knife in a reverse grip.

Jiang He took a pen next to him and re-enacted the murderers movements with his hand. Jiang He held the pen in reverse grip: The tip of the blade is on the side of the pen that faces outward, and the back of the knife is on the side that faces me. Only in this way was it conceivable for the murderer to inflict such a wound on Wu Guifengs body. Furthermore, the angle of it must be perfected; otherwise, the knife is most likely to cut through the abdomen with such a stabbing method.

Jiang He shook his head, saying: If it is Li Weiyi, why did he kill them in such an awkward posture? Its rather strange.

Silence ensued shortly before being broken by Wang Chaos words: Is it conceivable that when he came out, he removed the knife from He Huijuans in that way? Its hardly unexpected that he drew the knife with the back of his hand. Li Weiyi also remarked that he ran out, thus it may be too late to modify his knife-holding stance. Isnt there a probability that Wu Guifeng was killed?

Jiang He nodded and used his signature pen to stab himself: You are right, but the likelihood of suicide is clearly much higher. But as long as it is theoretically viable, everything is conceivable. Probability theory is a wonderful thing, but it is not certain, even if it is as high as 99%.

But this is only one of my worries, Jiang He commented once more. Had he slain his mother at the entrance, there shouldve been blood splatters. But I didnt observe any blood splatters or evidence at the site, not even on the floor or the wall near the entry. Even the floor didnt have a single imprint.

Wang Chao spoke up again: To avoid causing any damage to the scene, we walked right over the pool of blood, and the security guards must have done the same. I believe there are spatter-like bloodstains, but wasnt Wu Guifeng still bleeding after that? Its conceivable that the fresh bloodstains are meant as a disguise for the old ones.

Jiang He placed his signature pen on the table: On the front door, there was only a bloody handprint left on the door handle by Wu Guifeng. There should be bloodstains on Li Weiyis hands after killing someone and yet there was no trace of it when he stormed out of the door. The fact that there was no blood on his shoes or clothing after stabbing Wu Guifeng further leads us to another question.

Jiang Hes arguments were tough to contradict, however, the pieces of evidence were now directed to Li Weiyi, and Wang Chao could only evaluate the directions given by the evidence.

Wang Chao uttered, Wait, lets ask all of these questions together, including where he flung his phone away. If his statements match with the present pieces of evidence, the case is effectively closed.

Jiang He gave a nod.

A profound feeling of intrigue arose in Xu Yimans heart as she watched and listened to Jiang He and Wang Chao discussing the murderer. A simple case can have hundreds of different outcomes, and these individuals were attempting to find the truth among these chaotic outcomes.

There is one thing we must take into account, though. Xu Yiman cleared her throat and joined the conversation: Think about how much torment a person would endure if he claimed to have murdered his wife and mother. This is even more irrational if the person in question did not kill his own family members but claimed to have killed someone. Does he not want to catch the true culprit?

Wang Chao concurred with Xu Yimans statement. What you said makes perfect sense. Our university also offers a course on the psychology of criminals. This is a bloody vengeance that must be avenged in ancient terms. Li Weiyi shouldnt be punished if he wasnt the murderer.

Jiang He brushed it off. Although you mentioned witnessing someone who can read a criminals mind, I dont think that is particularly reliable.

Psychology in particular cannot have a big impact since it is essentially an accumulation of universal experience. Its acceptable to guess what people are thinking in this fashion, but Ill never use it to solve a case.

By your words, everything seen solely by eyes is true, Wang Chao shrugged. I believe you will meet such a person one day.

This form of reasoning is predicated on a guess, Jiang He said again. You make an informed prediction based on information that is inherently unpredictable. The conclusion is thus dependent on unclear information, and the conclusion itself may not exist. How can you depend on the likelihood of this outcome?

Wang Chao and Xu Yiman were astounded. Both of them understood that Jiang Hes words were incorrect, but they were unable to dispute them since there was no way to do so.

People were not robots; they were sentient creatures with emotions after all.

Emotional creatures had both strengths and weaknesses, but they were born with the capacity to see through other peoples psyches.

If that formidable expert was among the finest in this domain, Jiang He was basically equal to zero.

A second round of questioning was conducted, this time concentrating on several issues.

When Xu Yiman completed her work, she could head back to the city bureau and it was almost time to leave. But, on the other hand, she appeared to be inquisitive. She was curious whether Li Weiyi was the actual murderer. She was curious to hear what Li Weiyi had to say, regardless of the outcome.

Li Weiyi, youve already come this far. Tell me precisely how you murdered He Huijuan and Wu Guifeng, and describe your actions at the time, Wang Chao proclaimed as he wrapped an A4 piece of paper into the form of a long stick and gave it to Li Weiyi.

Li Weiyi grabbed the paper and stabbed it straight down, first gripping the paper roll with the back of his right palm.

Then, in the same awkward posture, he stabbed obliquely.

When Wang Chao saw this, a large stone fell into his heart.

He cast a glance at Jiang He nearby, implying that Li Weiyi was the murderer.

Jiang He was eyeing Li Weiyi while remaining silent.

Thats all, is there a problem? asked Li Weiyi as he threw the paper roll on the ground.

Wang Chao did not respond, but continued to inquire: How do you explain the blood on your clothes and shoes?

Li Weiyi replied: My body was drenched in blood when I fled. Even though there wasnt much blood, I was still frightened and hurried to the unit to change into formal attire.

Where did you toss it? Wang Chao inquired.

I thought about committing suicide, and I wanted to jump into the river and die, but I didnt have the guts, so I threw the clothes into the river. Li Weiyi poked his hand.

The exact location? Wang Chao inquired about this information with great care.

At Erlong Street block, though I am unsure about the precise location, Li Weiyi answered.

Wang Chao persisted in his inquiry: Where did you throw the phone?

I cant recollect. I only recall tossing it away soon after leaving the community, but I was too afraid to remember where I threw it at the time. I did not apply much force when tossing it, and the phone should still be intact, Li Weiyi said gravely.

Did you turn it off? Wang Chao asked.

Li Weiyi shook his head and said: I didnt turn it off.

At this point, a member of the police team walked in from outside and muttered something into Wang Chaos ear after which he nodded repeatedly. Wang Chao eventually asked the police officer to look at Li Weiyi and told Jiang He and Xu Yiman to come out.

Whats the problem? Jiang He inquired.

When our colleagues in the police team reviewed the surveillance, they detected Li Weiyis figure on a camera at the entrance to Chengshun Street, Wang Chao stated as he closed the door. Chengshun Street is just around fifteen minutes walk from Li Weiyis residence. And since this community is fairly old, that is, it may be approached from all sides, there is no camera to observe whether Li Weiyi has returned.

Wang Chao shifted his gaze to the interrogation room: The time is approximately 10:40 a.m., and it is consistent. And you just observed Li Weiyis awkward yet accurate motions, which matched the direction of the wound.

Case closed, and the evidence will be handed over to the court. Wang Chao said to everyone.

I appreciate your assistance. You should go home and take a good rest, Wang Chao said as he shook hands with Xu Yiman.

I also hope that I will never have to work, Xu Yiman remarked with a smile. Every day, two people are born and two people die in our city on average. Doctors cannot rest, and forensic specialist is no exception.

Thats right. By the way, Jiang He, I really want to thank you this time, if it werent for you Wang Chao sighed.

Then Wang Chao lifted his gaze, seeking Jiang Hes figure: Wheres Jiang He?

He left when you two were talking. Moreover, he also borrowed three hundred RMB from me, saying that Captain Wang would pay me back later for him, a policeman said.